000 WTNT80 EGRR 231608 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 49.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 31.6N 49.6W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2017 32.1N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 31.9N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 31.5N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 31.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 30.0N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 29.5N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 29.6N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 30.3N 56.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 31.2N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 33.0N 58.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2017 36.3N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 41.4N 53.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 72.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 25.1N 72.4W INTENSE 00UTC 24.09.2017 26.9N 72.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 28.6N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 30.0N 73.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.9N 73.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 32.2N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.6N 74.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 34.5N 74.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 35.3N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 35.5N 73.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 35.5N 71.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.5N 67.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2017 37.2N 63.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.8N 106.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 19.8N 106.2W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2017 21.1N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 22.1N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 23.0N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 23.6N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 24.2N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 125.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 13.5N 125.9W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2017 13.8N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 13.5N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 13.2N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 13.2N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 13.1N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 13.3N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 13.9N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.7N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.0N 137.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2017 11.1N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 11.6N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 12.4N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 13.3N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.6N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.8N 151.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 9.5N 151.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 9.3N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 10.2N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 12.0N 153.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231608