000
WTNT80 EGRR 220406

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2017

        TROPICAL STORM JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N  68.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2017  39.4N  68.2W   MODERATE
 12UTC 22.09.2017  39.6N  69.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 23.09.2017  39.7N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2017  39.2N  69.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.09.2017  38.6N  68.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.09.2017  38.7N  69.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N  69.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2017  20.8N  69.9W   INTENSE
 12UTC 22.09.2017  22.1N  70.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2017  23.7N  71.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2017  25.3N  72.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2017  27.0N  72.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.09.2017  28.6N  72.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2017  30.0N  72.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.09.2017  31.3N  72.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 26.09.2017  32.3N  72.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2017  33.2N  72.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2017  34.2N  71.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.09.2017  35.3N  70.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 28.09.2017  36.4N  68.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.0N 105.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 24.09.2017  19.0N 105.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 24.09.2017  20.1N 106.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2017  21.3N 106.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2017  21.7N 106.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2017  22.2N 106.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2017  22.9N 106.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2017  23.6N 107.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.09.2017  24.3N 108.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.6N 126.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 26.09.2017  12.6N 125.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2017  12.4N 124.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.09.2017  12.7N 123.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2017  13.1N 121.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.0N 144.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 27.09.2017  11.0N 144.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 28.09.2017  11.6N 144.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 220406