000 WTNT80 EGRR 211607 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N 68.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2017 39.7N 68.0W MODERATE 00UTC 22.09.2017 39.5N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.5N 69.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.8N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 39.4N 69.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 39.2N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 39.5N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 39.1N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 39.8N 66.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 40.3N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 40.6N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 41.0N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 41.6N 56.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 68.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.0N 68.7W STRONG 00UTC 22.09.2017 20.8N 70.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 22.0N 70.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.6N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 25.3N 72.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 27.0N 72.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 28.8N 72.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 30.1N 72.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2017 31.0N 72.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 31.5N 71.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 31.7N 71.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 32.0N 70.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 32.2N 68.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.3N 105.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 18.3N 105.5W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2017 19.5N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 20.5N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 21.1N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 21.7N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 22.5N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 23.4N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 24.2N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 25.0N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.6N 92.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 13.6N 92.8W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2017 14.5N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 15.0N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 15.8N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.6N 132.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2017 11.6N 132.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211607