000 WTNT80 EGRR 201606 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.7N 69.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2017 38.7N 69.9W STRONG 00UTC 21.09.2017 39.3N 68.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 39.6N 67.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 39.5N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.7N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.8N 69.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 39.7N 70.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 39.6N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 39.3N 69.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 38.8N 70.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 46.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.0N 46.6W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2017 18.6N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.2N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 22.5N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 25.0N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 66.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.0N 66.3W INTENSE 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.2N 67.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.2N 69.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 20.7N 70.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 21.8N 71.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.2N 71.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 24.7N 72.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 26.5N 72.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 28.2N 72.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 29.8N 72.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2017 31.1N 71.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 32.2N 71.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.3N 70.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 17.1N 103.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 17.0N 104.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 17.5N 105.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 18.0N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 18.0N 105.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 18.0N 106.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 18.1N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 18.7N 106.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.9N 56.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 31.9N 56.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2017 32.0N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 32.3N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201606