000 WTNT80 EGRR 181607 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2017 HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 71.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2017 33.6N 71.1W STRONG 00UTC 19.09.2017 35.0N 71.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 36.1N 71.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 37.7N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 39.3N 69.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 40.2N 68.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 40.0N 67.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 39.7N 67.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.7N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.0N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 38.2N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 37.5N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 37.2N 70.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 40.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2017 14.4N 40.1W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2017 15.2N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 16.7N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 18.4N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 19.8N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 21.7N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 24.7N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 27.2N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 27.9N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 29.4N 50.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2017 31.1N 50.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 32.7N 48.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 34.1N 45.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 59.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2017 14.5N 59.8W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2017 15.0N 61.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 15.9N 62.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 16.9N 63.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.0N 65.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.0N 66.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 19.8N 68.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 20.6N 70.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 21.8N 70.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.4N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2017 25.0N 71.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 26.7N 71.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 28.5N 71.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 112.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2017 21.3N 112.3W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2017 21.7N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 22.2N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 23.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 23.6N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OTIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 127.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2017 19.0N 127.5W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2017 19.5N 127.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 19.3N 128.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 18.6N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 17.7N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 16.9N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 16.4N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.7N 166.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2017 9.7N 166.5W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2017 10.7N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 12.0N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 13.3N 172.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 14.2N 174.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 14.7N 177.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 14.4N 179.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 14.0N 176.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 13.8N 174.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 13.8N 171.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 14.4N 168.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.2N 159.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2017 13.2N 159.4W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2017 12.8N 160.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 12.7N 160.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 13.1N 161.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 13.9N 163.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 15.0N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 16.0N 165.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 16.9N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.3N 145.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 11.9N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 11.5N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 10.7N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 10.1N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 92.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 13.1N 92.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 13.2N 91.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 14.0N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.6N 105.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2017 18.6N 105.5W WEAK 12UTC 24.09.2017 19.5N 105.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181607