000 WTNT80 EGRR 161606 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2017 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 126.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2017 15.8N 126.4W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2017 15.6N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 15.7N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 16.5N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 17.7N 126.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 18.5N 127.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 18.8N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 18.6N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.1N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 18.0N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 32.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2017 12.8N 32.6W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2017 13.0N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 13.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 13.2N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 13.9N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 15.0N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 16.2N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 17.5N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.6N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.4N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.3N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 22.5N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 25.1N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 72.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2017 28.5N 72.0W STRONG 00UTC 17.09.2017 29.4N 72.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 30.6N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 32.0N 71.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 33.6N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 35.0N 72.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 37.0N 72.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 38.9N 72.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2017 40.2N 71.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 41.4N 69.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 41.1N 68.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 40.3N 66.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.1N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 110.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2017 18.9N 110.3W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2017 19.7N 110.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 20.6N 110.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 21.6N 111.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 22.2N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 22.7N 113.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 23.1N 113.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 23.3N 113.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 23.4N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.6N 51.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2017 12.8N 53.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 13.5N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 14.1N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 14.5N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 15.0N 58.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 15.8N 59.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 16.6N 61.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2017 17.4N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 17.8N 64.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2017 18.0N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 18.9N 66.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 20.0N 67.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 134.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 12.9N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 13.2N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 13.5N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 13.2N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 12.8N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 12.3N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 12.0N 133.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 11.5N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 12.0N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 12.5N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.4N 140.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2017 11.4N 140.2W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2017 11.8N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 12.6N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 13.0N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 13.2N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 13.1N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 12.8N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 12.5N 146.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 12.0N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 11.7N 148.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 9.9N 163.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2017 9.9N 164.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 10.4N 166.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 11.9N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 13.2N 170.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 14.2N 172.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 14.9N 175.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 15.0N 177.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 14.6N 179.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161606