000 WTNT80 EGRR 141607 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2017 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 122.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 15.9N 122.6W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2017 16.3N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 16.6N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 16.4N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 16.2N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2017 16.1N 127.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 16.4N 127.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 16.9N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 17.3N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 17.8N 126.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 18.1N 126.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 18.4N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.6N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 24.7N 66.2W MODERATE 00UTC 15.09.2017 25.2N 67.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 25.8N 70.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 26.7N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 27.8N 73.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 28.6N 74.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 29.5N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 30.6N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2017 31.7N 74.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 32.7N 74.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 34.4N 74.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 36.6N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 38.6N 73.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 100.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 16.3N 100.2W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 110.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 16.7N 110.2W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2017 17.7N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 19.2N 110.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2017 19.4N 110.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 19.5N 110.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 20.4N 110.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 21.3N 110.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 22.2N 111.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2017 23.1N 112.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 24.2N 113.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 25.2N 114.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 11.2N 22.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2017 11.3N 24.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2017 11.7N 27.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2017 12.0N 29.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 12.0N 30.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 12.0N 31.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 12.1N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 12.6N 33.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 13.5N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 14.5N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 15.5N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 16.7N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 17.7N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.5N 44.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2017 11.5N 44.3W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2017 12.4N 48.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 13.3N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 14.2N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 15.0N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2017 15.8N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2017 16.6N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2017 17.3N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 17.9N 60.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.5N 61.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.0N 136.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2017 12.0N 136.4W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2017 12.6N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2017 12.7N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 12.7N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 13.0N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2017 13.5N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2017 13.6N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 13.5N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 13.4N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2017 12.8N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.9N 162.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2017 10.0N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2017 10.8N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2017 12.3N 167.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2017 13.4N 168.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141607