000 WTNT80 EGRR 120404 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2017 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 112.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2017 15.7N 112.6W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 84.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2017 31.9N 84.4W MODERATE 12UTC 12.09.2017 33.7N 86.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2017 35.2N 88.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 69.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2017 26.9N 69.6W STRONG 12UTC 12.09.2017 27.4N 68.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2017 26.7N 66.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2017 25.3N 65.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2017 24.1N 65.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 23.3N 67.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 23.1N 69.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 23.2N 71.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 23.6N 74.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 24.2N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 24.9N 78.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 26.0N 80.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 27.2N 81.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.9N 135.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 11.1N 135.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2017 11.6N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 11.9N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 12.7N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 13.1N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2017 13.6N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 14.0N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2017 14.2N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.0N 117.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 17.0N 117.9W MODERATE 00UTC 15.09.2017 18.1N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 18.8N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 19.3N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 19.6N 118.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 20.0N 117.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 21.0N 117.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 22.2N 118.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 19.2N 106.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2017 19.2N 106.6W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2017 18.2N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 17.9N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.6N 39.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2017 12.5N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 13.3N 45.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 14.5N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 15.3N 49.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 16.4N 49.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 34.7N 37.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2017 35.0N 37.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2017 36.8N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120404