000 WTNT80 EGRR 111605 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 82.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2017 29.7N 82.8W STRONG 00UTC 12.09.2017 32.3N 84.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2017 34.3N 86.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2017 35.3N 88.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 69.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2017 25.2N 69.6W STRONG 00UTC 12.09.2017 26.9N 70.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2017 27.4N 69.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2017 26.7N 67.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2017 25.5N 67.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2017 24.3N 67.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 23.6N 68.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2017 23.4N 70.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 23.6N 72.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2017 24.2N 75.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 25.0N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 26.1N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 27.4N 80.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.5N 133.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2017 10.5N 133.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2017 10.8N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 11.1N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 12.0N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 13.2N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 13.9N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2017 14.4N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2017 14.7N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.4N 117.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2017 17.4N 117.5W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2017 18.7N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 20.2N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 21.0N 117.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 21.6N 117.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 22.6N 115.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 23.6N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.7N 38.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2017 11.7N 38.4W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2017 12.4N 42.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 13.4N 45.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2017 14.8N 48.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2017 15.9N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.1N 38.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2017 36.1N 38.8W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2017 36.6N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111605