000 WTNT80 EGRR 101612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2017 HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2017 24.5N 81.3W INTENSE 00UTC 11.09.2017 26.7N 81.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2017 29.7N 82.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2017 32.2N 84.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.09.2017 34.4N 86.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2017 35.1N 89.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 65.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2017 21.2N 65.2W MODERATE 00UTC 11.09.2017 23.3N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2017 25.3N 69.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2017 26.7N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2017 26.8N 68.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2017 25.9N 67.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2017 24.5N 66.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2017 23.2N 66.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 22.3N 68.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 22.0N 70.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2017 22.2N 72.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2017 22.8N 74.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 23.8N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.8N 104.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2017 15.7N 105.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2017 16.9N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2017 18.2N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 19.3N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 19.4N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2017 19.4N 107.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2017 19.2N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2017 18.6N 107.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 20.3N 37.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2017 21.2N 37.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.09.2017 24.1N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2017 25.9N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 27.6N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 29.2N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 31.3N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 32.8N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 34.4N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 40.0N 53.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2017 40.0N 53.8W MODERATE 12UTC 13.09.2017 41.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2017 42.9N 50.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2017 44.0N 49.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2017 45.1N 48.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.8N 132.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2017 11.2N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2017 11.8N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2017 11.9N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2017 12.6N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2017 13.8N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 14.7N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 15.5N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 16.3N 118.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2017 17.0N 118.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2017 17.5N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2017 18.4N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2017 19.3N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101612