000 WTNT80 EGRR 051610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2017 HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2017 16.7N 57.7W INTENSE 00UTC 06.09.2017 17.2N 60.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2017 17.9N 63.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2017 18.9N 65.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2017 19.8N 68.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2017 20.6N 70.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 20.9N 73.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2017 20.9N 75.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2017 21.0N 77.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2017 21.2N 78.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2017 22.2N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2017 23.5N 79.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2017 25.5N 79.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.5N 39.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2017 12.5N 39.2W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2017 12.8N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2017 13.5N 43.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2017 14.4N 46.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2017 15.3N 49.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2017 16.0N 52.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 16.8N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2017 17.7N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2017 18.6N 60.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2017 20.0N 61.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2017 21.7N 63.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2017 23.6N 65.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2017 25.3N 66.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 21.8N 95.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2017 21.6N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2017 21.7N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2017 21.4N 94.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2017 21.5N 94.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 21.4N 95.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2017 20.7N 95.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2017 20.0N 97.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.0N 144.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2017 12.0N 144.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.09.2017 12.4N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2017 12.9N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.0N 106.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2017 18.0N 106.9W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2017 18.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051610