000 WTNT80 EGRR 050409 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2017 HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2017 16.6N 55.1W INTENSE 12UTC 05.09.2017 16.6N 57.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2017 17.1N 60.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2017 17.8N 62.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2017 18.8N 65.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2017 19.7N 67.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2017 20.4N 70.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 20.7N 72.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2017 20.8N 75.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2017 21.0N 77.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2017 21.5N 79.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2017 22.5N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2017 24.0N 79.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 42.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2017 13.3N 43.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2017 14.5N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2017 15.3N 50.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2017 16.4N 53.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 17.5N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2017 18.4N 59.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2017 19.5N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2017 20.5N 63.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2017 22.2N 65.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2017 24.4N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.6N 95.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2017 21.6N 95.6W WEAK 00UTC 07.09.2017 21.3N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2017 21.1N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2017 21.4N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2017 21.3N 94.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2017 20.6N 95.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.8N 137.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2017 11.2N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2017 11.9N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2017 12.2N 137.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.2N 107.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2017 18.2N 107.2W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050409