000
WTNT80 EGRR 031605

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2017

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 116.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2017  29.7N 116.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.09.2017  31.1N 118.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2017  31.6N 120.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE IRMA       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N  47.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2017  17.6N  47.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 04.09.2017  17.1N  49.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2017  16.6N  52.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2017  16.4N  54.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2017  16.5N  56.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2017  17.2N  58.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2017  18.4N  60.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2017  19.7N  63.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2017  20.8N  66.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2017  21.6N  68.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2017  22.2N  70.8W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2017  22.2N  73.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2017  22.5N  74.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.1N  40.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2017  13.4N  42.2W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.09.2017  14.4N  45.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2017  15.1N  48.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2017  16.2N  51.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2017  17.1N  53.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2017  17.9N  55.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.09.2017  18.9N  56.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N  95.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 08.09.2017  21.9N  94.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2017  22.2N  95.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2017  22.3N  96.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.09.2017  22.1N  97.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 031605