000 WTNT80 EGRR 281619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2017 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 95.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2017 28.5N 95.9W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2017 28.3N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 28.1N 94.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 28.2N 94.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 29.7N 93.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 30.1N 93.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 31.5N 93.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2017 33.3N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2017 34.2N 91.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2017 34.9N 90.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2017 35.9N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 80.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2017 31.0N 80.8W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2017 31.3N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 33.1N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 36.1N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 38.4N 70.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2017 40.8N 64.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2017 41.4N 60.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.09.2017 43.4N 54.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2017 45.3N 48.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2017 47.0N 41.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2017 49.7N 30.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2017 53.3N 24.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2017 53.6N 20.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2017 15.4N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 15.9N 30.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 16.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2017 16.9N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2017 18.0N 36.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2017 18.9N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2017 19.8N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2017 20.1N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2017 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2017 20.0N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 20.9N 111.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.08.2017 21.8N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2017 22.0N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2017 23.1N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2017 24.1N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2017 26.2N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2017 26.7N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2017 28.4N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.4N 132.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2017 11.5N 132.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.09.2017 12.1N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2017 12.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2017 13.8N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2017 14.2N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2017 14.4N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.4N 140.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.09.2017 11.4N 140.3W WEAK 00UTC 03.09.2017 12.1N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2017 13.6N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281619