000 WTNT80 EGRR 250418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2017 HURRICANE HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 94.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.08.2017 25.0N 94.2W MODERATE 12UTC 25.08.2017 26.2N 95.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2017 27.5N 96.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2017 28.3N 97.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2017 28.8N 97.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.08.2017 28.8N 97.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2017 28.4N 98.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2017 28.1N 97.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 28.0N 97.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 28.3N 97.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 28.8N 97.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 29.0N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 125.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.08.2017 12.5N 125.7W WEAK 00UTC 28.08.2017 13.3N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2017 13.5N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 13.4N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 13.6N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 14.2N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 14.6N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 15.1N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 30.5N 79.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2017 30.5N 79.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.08.2017 32.1N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 33.2N 75.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2017 35.1N 72.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2017 37.5N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2017 40.7N 65.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 31.08.2017 43.1N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.8N 22.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2017 16.9N 23.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2017 18.5N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2017 18.6N 28.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 19.6N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 19.8N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 20.0N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.6N 153.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2017 11.6N 153.7W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2017 11.9N 155.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2017 13.0N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2017 13.9N 159.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 14.5N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 18.7N 107.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.08.2017 18.9N 108.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2017 20.4N 109.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2017 20.9N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250418