000
WTNT80 EGRR 171618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.08.2017

             HURRICANE GERT       ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N  52.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.08.2017  42.2N  52.2W    STRONG
 00UTC 18.08.2017  46.4N  43.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 18.08.2017  50.0N  36.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.08.2017  52.3N  30.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 19.08.2017  53.3N  28.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.08.2017  54.5N  25.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.08.2017  53.8N  20.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.08.2017  POST-TROPICAL

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N  54.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.08.2017  13.1N  54.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 18.08.2017  13.5N  56.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.08.2017  13.3N  60.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.08.2017  13.4N  63.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.08.2017  13.8N  67.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.08.2017  14.2N  71.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.08.2017  14.0N  75.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.08.2017  14.3N  79.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2017  14.5N  82.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 22.08.2017  15.2N  86.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 22.08.2017  16.0N  88.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2017  16.2N  90.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2017  17.3N  91.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 17.8N 127.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.08.2017  18.1N 128.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.08.2017  18.6N 130.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2017  19.2N 131.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2017  19.5N 132.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.4N  64.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 20.08.2017  19.4N  64.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 21.08.2017  20.6N  67.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2017  21.1N  69.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2017  21.7N  72.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2017  22.2N  74.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 23.08.2017  22.3N  75.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.08.2017  22.4N  76.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 37.6N  32.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.08.2017  37.6N  32.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.08.2017  35.3N  33.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.08.2017  35.0N  32.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.08.2017  34.4N  33.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 171618