000 WTNT80 EGRR 140419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2017 TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 71.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2017 28.3N 71.9W WEAK 12UTC 14.08.2017 29.7N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2017 31.1N 73.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2017 32.7N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 34.6N 72.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2017 37.0N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 38.7N 62.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.08.2017 39.8N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2017 41.9N 47.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2017 46.6N 38.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2017 52.7N 32.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2017 53.3N 37.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 119.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2017 20.6N 119.1W WEAK 12UTC 14.08.2017 20.1N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2017 19.7N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2017 19.3N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.9N 139.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2017 11.9N 139.9W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2017 12.9N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 13.2N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2017 13.1N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 12.9N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2017 12.6N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2017 12.0N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 11.4N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2017 11.6N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2017 12.0N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2017 13.2N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.3N 149.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2017 11.7N 149.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2017 11.7N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2017 11.5N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 11.5N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2017 11.6N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.7N 108.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.08.2017 18.5N 109.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 19.2N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2017 19.7N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2017 20.2N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2017 20.8N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 63.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2017 15.4N 63.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2017 15.2N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2017 16.0N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2017 16.1N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140419