000 WTNT80 EGRR 121618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.08.2017 TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 111.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2017 19.4N 111.3W WEAK 00UTC 13.08.2017 19.9N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2017 19.8N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2017 19.9N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2017 19.7N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2017 20.0N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2017 19.5N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 19.2N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2017 18.8N 130.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.9N 71.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2017 26.9N 71.2W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2017 28.0N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2017 30.2N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2017 31.5N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2017 33.2N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 34.8N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2017 36.0N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 36.9N 65.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2017 38.3N 59.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.08.2017 39.7N 51.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2017 44.1N 42.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.5N 146.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2017 11.6N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2017 11.7N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2017 11.8N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2017 11.9N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 11.5N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2017 11.4N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2017 11.2N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 11.1N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.4N 132.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2017 11.4N 132.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2017 11.8N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2017 12.6N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2017 13.6N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2017 14.2N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 14.4N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.5N 167.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2017 13.5N 167.9W WEAK 00UTC 18.08.2017 14.2N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2017 14.7N 171.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121618