000
WTNT80 EGRR 151617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.11.2016

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 38.8N  73.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.11.2016  38.8N  73.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 16.11.2016  41.1N  73.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.11.2016  42.9N  72.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2016  46.0N  68.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2016  47.2N  66.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.0N  67.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.11.2016  33.6N  65.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2016  37.5N  63.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.11.2016  39.8N  63.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2016  38.4N  64.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2016  37.2N  63.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2016  37.2N  62.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2016  39.1N  60.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.11.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.4N  78.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 19.11.2016  13.2N  79.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 19.11.2016  13.1N  78.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2016  13.7N  77.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2016  13.1N  76.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2016  13.4N  75.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2016  12.8N  75.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 151617