000 WTNT80 EGRR 201618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2016 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 27.3N 73.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2016 27.0N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 29.2N 72.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 33.8N 70.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2016 38.6N 66.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2016 46.8N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 52.0N 53.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.3N 114.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2016 13.3N 114.2W WEAK 12UTC 21.10.2016 13.1N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 13.3N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.8N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 14.5N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 15.5N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 16.6N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2016 16.6N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2016 16.5N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2016 16.9N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2016 17.4N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2016 18.8N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.3N 120.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2016 11.3N 120.1W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2016 12.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 12.6N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 12.9N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.6N 108.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2016 14.6N 108.9W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2016 16.4N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2016 17.5N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2016 19.5N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2016 21.6N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2016 23.0N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 31.2N 24.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.10.2016 29.7N 23.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201618