000 WTNT80 EGRR 181618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.10.2016 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2016 12.9N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2016 13.1N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2016 13.0N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 12.7N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 13.1N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.4N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 13.9N 113.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 14.5N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 15.1N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2016 15.2N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 27.1N 69.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2016 28.1N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2016 29.8N 71.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2016 31.9N 71.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2016 35.5N 67.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2016 42.7N 62.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2016 50.8N 54.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2016 53.8N 45.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.8N 98.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2016 12.4N 99.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 12.7N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 14.2N 103.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2016 15.3N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2016 16.0N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2016 16.2N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.7N 126.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2016 12.7N 126.6W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2016 13.7N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2016 14.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181618