000 WTNT80 EGRR 170418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.10.2016 HURRICANE NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 40.0N 45.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2016 40.0N 45.9W STRONG 12UTC 17.10.2016 41.0N 45.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2016 43.0N 41.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2016 47.7N 37.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2016 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.2N 125.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.10.2016 12.2N 125.1W WEAK 12UTC 20.10.2016 12.6N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2016 12.6N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 12.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 12.9N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.0N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 13.9N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.0N 138.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2016 13.0N 138.4W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2016 13.4N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2016 14.0N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2016 14.2N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 14.1N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 13.6N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 29.7N 67.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2016 29.7N 67.1W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2016 31.0N 70.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2016 32.2N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2016 35.8N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 40.3N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 45.3N 54.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 97.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2016 12.5N 97.1W WEAK 00UTC 22.10.2016 12.5N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.3N 100.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 14.1N 101.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.0N 107.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2016 13.0N 107.4W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2016 13.6N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2016 14.4N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.3N 148.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2016 10.3N 148.0W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170418