000
WTNT80 EGRR 111618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2016

        TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N  65.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.10.2016  26.9N  65.6W   MODERATE
 00UTC 12.10.2016  27.5N  66.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.10.2016  28.4N  66.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.10.2016  29.8N  66.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.10.2016  31.7N  65.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.10.2016  33.8N  62.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.10.2016  35.8N  59.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2016  37.5N  54.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.10.2016  39.0N  51.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 16.10.2016  39.4N  49.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2016  38.9N  49.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2016  38.4N  49.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2016  38.1N  48.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.5N 170.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.10.2016  12.5N 170.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 14.10.2016  13.0N 172.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.10.2016  13.5N 175.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2016  14.1N 178.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2016  14.4N 178.8E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2016  15.2N 176.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2016  16.0N 174.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.0N 162.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.10.2016  10.0N 162.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 14.10.2016  10.5N 165.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.10.2016  10.8N 167.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2016  11.2N 170.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.10.2016  11.3N 173.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2016  11.2N 176.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2016  11.4N 179.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2016  11.6N 178.6E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111618