000 WTNT80 EGRR 110419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2016 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 65.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2016 26.4N 65.3W MODERATE 12UTC 11.10.2016 27.2N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 27.7N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 28.5N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 30.0N 66.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 32.2N 65.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2016 34.5N 63.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 37.0N 60.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2016 39.2N 55.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 40.7N 53.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2016 41.1N 52.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2016 40.3N 52.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2016 39.7N 52.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.7N 32.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2016 32.7N 32.2W WEAK 12UTC 11.10.2016 31.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 31.4N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 31.8N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 31.6N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 31.0N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 30.3N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.3N 161.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2016 10.3N 161.3W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2016 10.7N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 11.3N 166.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 12.3N 169.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 13.1N 172.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 13.9N 174.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2016 14.5N 177.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 15.2N 179.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 16.0N 177.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2016 17.2N 174.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 129.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2016 13.0N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 13.8N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 14.2N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 14.8N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.6N 179.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2016 11.6N 179.6W WEAK 00UTC 14.10.2016 11.9N 177.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 11.6N 175.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2016 11.6N 174.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 11.3N 173.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 11.4N 173.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2016 11.9N 172.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2016 13.0N 172.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.3N 165.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2016 10.2N 166.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2016 10.6N 169.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 10.6N 171.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2016 10.6N 174.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2016 10.8N 177.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 32.5N 21.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2016 32.5N 21.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110419