000 WTNT80 EGRR 081618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2016 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 79.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2016 32.5N 79.9W STRONG 00UTC 09.10.2016 33.9N 77.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 34.8N 75.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 35.0N 72.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 34.9N 69.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 36.7N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 37.2N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 38.4N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 40.4N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 43.7N 58.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 46.5N 58.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2016 47.8N 53.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2016 50.8N 50.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 66.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.6N 66.3W WEAK 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.4N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 23.8N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.4N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 23.6N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 24.1N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2016 25.0N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 25.7N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 26.3N 64.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 27.0N 64.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 28.1N 63.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 29.7N 61.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 31.9N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.6N 126.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2016 10.7N 126.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 10.6N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.8N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.0N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 14.0N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 14.9N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.8N 119.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 17.9N 120.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2016 19.1N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 20.3N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 20.8N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 30.8N 37.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2016 30.8N 37.6W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2016 30.4N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 29.3N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 29.5N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 28.9N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.0N 163.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2016 11.0N 163.5W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2016 11.6N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081618