000 WTNT80 EGRR 080418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 80.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2016 30.6N 80.6W STRONG 12UTC 08.10.2016 32.5N 80.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2016 33.4N 77.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 34.4N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 34.2N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 34.2N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 34.7N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 35.7N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 36.0N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2016 37.7N 67.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2016 42.8N 68.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 43.9N 68.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 48.9N 65.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 65.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2016 26.5N 65.4W MODERATE 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.5N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.6N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 24.0N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.9N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 24.1N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 24.8N 64.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 26.6N 62.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 29.0N 61.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 31.9N 60.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 34.9N 60.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 38.6N 59.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.7N 116.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2016 12.2N 116.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 12.8N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 13.9N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 16.7N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 17.8N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 19.4N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 20.3N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 20.9N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.2N 125.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2016 11.2N 125.4W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2016 10.8N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 11.1N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.4N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 12.4N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.6N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 14.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 15.0N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 14.7N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 32.3N 33.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 32.0N 34.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2016 31.0N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 29.7N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 28.6N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.0N 109.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2016 14.0N 110.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 15.5N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 16.2N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080418