000 WTNT80 EGRR 071618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 80.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2016 28.6N 80.3W INTENSE 00UTC 08.10.2016 30.8N 80.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2016 32.8N 79.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 33.6N 77.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 34.3N 75.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 34.4N 72.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 34.5N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 35.2N 68.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2016 35.9N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 34.4N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 34.1N 64.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 65.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2016 27.3N 65.4W MODERATE 00UTC 08.10.2016 26.4N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.3N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.4N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 23.8N 65.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.8N 65.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 24.9N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 27.1N 63.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 29.6N 63.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 34.1N 63.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 38.8N 65.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 41.8N 65.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 43.4N 64.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.9N 118.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2016 12.1N 118.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 12.5N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 12.6N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 13.5N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 14.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 15.3N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 18.3N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.8N 124.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2016 10.9N 124.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 10.9N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.3N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.8N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.9N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071618