000 WTNT80 EGRR 070419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 79.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2016 26.7N 79.0W STRONG 12UTC 07.10.2016 28.8N 80.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2016 30.9N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 33.0N 79.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2016 33.8N 77.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 34.4N 74.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 34.7N 71.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 34.6N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 35.7N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 36.4N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 36.7N 66.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 36.1N 65.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2016 36.7N 63.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 65.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2016 27.5N 65.4W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2016 27.5N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2016 26.6N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.4N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.5N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 23.9N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.6N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2016 23.5N 66.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 24.2N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 25.2N 65.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2016 26.6N 65.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 28.1N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 30.3N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 118.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2016 12.4N 118.9W WEAK 00UTC 09.10.2016 13.0N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 13.1N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 13.4N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 13.2N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 13.9N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 14.7N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 16.9N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 18.9N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 19.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.2N 101.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.7N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.0N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 13.6N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 14.3N 113.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.3N 157.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2016 12.3N 157.4W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2016 12.9N 160.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 13.9N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070419