000 WTNT80 EGRR 061618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 77.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2016 24.7N 77.5W STRONG 00UTC 07.10.2016 26.7N 79.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2016 28.9N 80.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2016 30.8N 81.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 32.2N 80.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2016 32.5N 78.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2016 32.8N 76.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2016 31.9N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 30.6N 74.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 28.3N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 26.1N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 24.9N 81.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 24.7N 81.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 65.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2016 26.4N 65.1W MODERATE 00UTC 07.10.2016 27.2N 65.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2016 27.2N 66.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2016 26.6N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2016 25.6N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2016 24.7N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 23.9N 67.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 23.6N 67.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 23.4N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 23.9N 68.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 24.8N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 25.5N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2016 26.7N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.8N 118.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2016 12.5N 118.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2016 13.0N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2016 13.3N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 13.2N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 13.2N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 13.9N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 14.3N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 16.4N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 18.8N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.9N 126.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2016 10.9N 126.3W WEAK 12UTC 09.10.2016 11.0N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2016 11.3N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2016 11.7N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 12.1N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.1N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.0N 152.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2016 11.8N 152.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.9N 154.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.9N 156.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 12.3N 159.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 12.6N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.8N 98.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2016 11.3N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 13.0N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.9N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 14.7N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 37.3N 48.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2016 37.3N 48.5W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061618