000 WTNT80 EGRR 280418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 116.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2016 18.9N 116.6W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2016 20.6N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 21.6N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ULIKA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 139.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2016 13.1N 139.2W MODERATE 12UTC 28.09.2016 14.5N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 15.3N 138.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 15.8N 138.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2016 16.2N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2016 16.4N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2016 16.5N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2016 15.9N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.7N 59.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2016 13.7N 59.2W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2016 13.8N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 14.0N 65.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2016 14.0N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2016 13.5N 69.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2016 13.0N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2016 13.0N 71.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 13.5N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2016 14.4N 72.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2016 15.8N 72.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2016 17.8N 72.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2016 19.9N 72.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 17.4N 114.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2016 17.6N 115.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2016 19.6N 115.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2016 19.6N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2016 21.1N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2016 21.1N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.7N 167.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2016 15.0N 168.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2016 16.1N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2016 17.3N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2016 18.1N 172.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2016 18.8N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280418