000 WTNT80 EGRR 260418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2016 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 119.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2016 16.7N 119.7W WEAK 12UTC 26.09.2016 17.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2016 17.3N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2016 18.0N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2016 18.8N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2016 19.9N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 20.7N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 21.3N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.2N 157.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2016 10.5N 158.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.09.2016 10.7N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 10.8N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 11.1N 162.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 11.3N 163.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2016 11.1N 165.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2016 11.7N 167.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2016 11.8N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 12.2N 170.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.6N 140.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2016 13.6N 140.1W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2016 13.9N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 14.8N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 15.5N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 15.9N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2016 15.7N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2016 15.6N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2016 15.1N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.9N 96.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2016 22.8N 96.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2016 23.0N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 22.4N 97.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.3N 60.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2016 12.4N 61.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2016 12.0N 64.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2016 11.2N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2016 10.9N 66.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2016 10.8N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 11.7N 67.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.2N 115.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2016 16.2N 115.6W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2016 16.0N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2016 15.9N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260418