000
WTNT80 EGRR 241618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2016

        TROPICAL STORM KARL       ANALYSED POSITION : 32.4N  63.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.09.2016  32.4N  63.5W   MODERATE
 00UTC 25.09.2016  34.7N  58.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2016  38.9N  49.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 26.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA       ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N  38.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.09.2016  24.4N  38.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 25.09.2016  25.8N  40.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2016  28.0N  41.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2016  30.1N  41.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2016  32.0N  40.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.2N 119.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 25.09.2016  15.2N 119.5W     WEAK
 12UTC 25.09.2016  16.2N 120.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2016  16.7N 120.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2016  17.2N 121.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2016  17.7N 121.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.09.2016  18.3N 121.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2016  19.5N 120.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.09.2016  20.7N 119.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.09.2016  21.6N 119.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2016  22.6N 120.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 135.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 27.09.2016  13.7N 135.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 27.09.2016  14.5N 134.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2016  15.2N 134.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.09.2016  15.7N 133.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.09.2016  16.1N 133.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2016  16.4N 133.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2016  16.7N 133.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2016  16.5N 134.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N  55.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2016  12.5N  57.1W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 29.09.2016  13.1N  59.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2016  13.2N  63.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.09.2016  13.0N  65.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2016  12.5N  67.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 241618