000 WTNT80 EGRR 240418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 65.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2016 30.4N 65.1W MODERATE 12UTC 24.09.2016 32.0N 63.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2016 33.8N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2016 37.0N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2016 42.5N 41.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LISA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 36.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2016 23.2N 36.7W WEAK 12UTC 24.09.2016 24.3N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2016 25.6N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2016 27.7N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2016 30.0N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2016 31.9N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.8N 120.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2016 15.8N 120.8W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2016 16.5N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2016 16.6N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2016 17.0N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2016 17.5N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2016 18.3N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2016 19.1N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 20.2N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 21.1N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.4N 138.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2016 13.4N 138.6W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2016 14.0N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2016 15.0N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2016 15.6N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2016 16.1N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 16.2N 137.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 16.6N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.1N 156.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2016 11.0N 157.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.09.2016 11.6N 158.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 11.7N 158.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 12.4N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.7N 54.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2016 13.1N 56.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.09.2016 12.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2016 12.5N 62.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2016 12.1N 64.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240418