000
WTNT80 EGRR 220418

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2016

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL       ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N  59.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2016  22.7N  59.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.09.2016  24.9N  61.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2016  26.3N  63.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2016  28.1N  64.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2016  30.6N  64.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.09.2016  32.8N  61.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.09.2016  35.3N  56.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 25.09.2016  39.7N  47.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 26.09.2016  46.4N  35.4W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 26.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM LISA       ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N  32.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 22.09.2016  18.9N  32.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 22.09.2016  20.3N  33.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.09.2016  21.5N  34.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.09.2016  23.0N  36.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.09.2016  24.0N  37.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.09.2016  25.0N  38.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2016  25.9N  40.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2016  27.6N  40.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2016  29.3N  40.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2016  30.0N  39.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2016  32.0N  39.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.0N 116.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 24.09.2016  14.0N 116.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 24.09.2016  14.2N 117.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.09.2016  15.4N 118.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.09.2016  16.0N 120.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.09.2016  16.7N 120.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.09.2016  17.2N 121.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.09.2016  17.5N 122.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.09.2016  18.0N 121.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2016  18.6N 120.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.2N 157.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 27.09.2016  10.1N 159.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.09.2016  10.0N 161.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 28.09.2016  10.1N 163.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 220418