000 WTNT80 EGRR 201618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 53.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2016 20.2N 53.2W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2016 20.3N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 21.2N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 22.9N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 24.5N 61.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2016 25.9N 62.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2016 27.7N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2016 29.8N 63.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2016 32.0N 61.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2016 34.4N 57.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2016 37.5N 50.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2016 42.3N 39.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM PAINE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 116.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2016 25.8N 116.9W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2016 28.1N 116.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 29.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2016 15.7N 29.6W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2016 16.4N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 17.8N 32.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 18.6N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 19.4N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2016 20.2N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2016 21.5N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2016 22.2N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2016 23.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 136.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2016 12.0N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 12.4N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2016 12.8N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2016 13.1N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2016 13.3N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2016 13.3N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2016 13.2N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2016 12.9N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2016 12.7N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2016 12.5N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.0N 132.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2016 14.0N 133.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2016 13.9N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2016 14.2N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201618