000 WTNT80 EGRR 190418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2016 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 77.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2016 31.9N 77.8W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2016 32.7N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 34.2N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 35.1N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 35.3N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 45.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2016 18.1N 45.6W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2016 18.6N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 19.2N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 19.8N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 20.6N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 21.6N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 22.7N 59.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2016 23.9N 61.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2016 25.3N 62.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2016 26.8N 63.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2016 28.1N 63.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2016 29.0N 62.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2016 30.0N 60.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM PAINE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 113.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2016 18.8N 113.9W MODERATE 12UTC 19.09.2016 20.7N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 23.1N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 25.5N 117.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2016 28.1N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.9N 31.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2016 15.9N 31.0W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2016 17.8N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 19.3N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 21.0N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2016 22.2N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2016 23.8N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2016 25.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2016 26.5N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2016 27.6N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.7N 136.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2016 11.7N 136.5W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2016 12.2N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2016 12.7N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2016 12.8N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2016 12.7N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2016 12.6N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.1N 127.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2016 14.1N 129.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190418