000 WTNT80 EGRR 161618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 46.5N 38.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2016 46.5N 38.3W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 75.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2016 31.2N 75.9W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2016 30.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 30.7N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 30.8N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 31.1N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 31.5N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 31.9N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 32.2N 75.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 32.0N 75.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 31.6N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 31.2N 75.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2016 30.3N 77.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2016 29.7N 79.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 33.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.4N 33.7W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2016 18.5N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 18.2N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 18.4N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 19.2N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 19.8N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 21.0N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 22.2N 51.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2016 23.2N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 24.9N 57.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 26.5N 60.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2016 27.7N 63.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2016 28.6N 64.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 125.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2016 19.7N 125.6W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2016 20.1N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 20.0N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.1N 107.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 14.1N 107.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2016 16.0N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.1N 112.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 18.4N 114.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 20.5N 116.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2016 23.2N 118.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 25.9N 118.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2016 28.6N 118.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 30.5N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.4N 26.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2016 14.2N 27.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.09.2016 15.2N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 16.5N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 17.7N 34.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 18.0N 36.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 19.2N 37.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 20.5N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.0N 137.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2016 12.6N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 13.1N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 13.6N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 13.9N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 14.4N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.4N 126.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2016 13.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2016 14.3N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2016 14.3N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161618