000 WTNT80 EGRR 151618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2016 36.4N 51.8W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2016 40.2N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 45.7N 38.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 53.1N 29.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2016 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 78.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2016 31.9N 78.4W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2016 31.4N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 31.1N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 30.8N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 31.0N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 31.1N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 31.1N 77.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 31.3N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 31.5N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 32.6N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 33.0N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 32.8N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 32.4N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 121.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2016 19.7N 121.6W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2016 19.2N 123.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.9N 125.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 18.5N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 18.2N 131.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 18.0N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.8N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 17.5N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 17.6N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 18.0N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 18.5N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 19.0N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 19.2N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 29.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2016 18.0N 29.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2016 18.0N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.0N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 17.7N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 17.7N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 17.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.7N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 18.9N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 19.6N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 20.9N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 22.2N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 23.4N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 24.4N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 15.1N 108.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2016 15.8N 108.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.9N 111.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 19.3N 113.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2016 21.4N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 24.6N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 27.7N 115.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2016 31.7N 113.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2016 35.5N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.4N 26.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2016 15.4N 26.8W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2016 16.1N 29.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 18.1N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2016 19.8N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2016 20.4N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.0N 133.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2016 12.0N 133.3W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2016 12.8N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151618