000 WTNT80 EGRR 141619 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 30.6N 53.3W MODERATE 00UTC 15.09.2016 33.4N 53.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 36.3N 52.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 40.0N 47.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 45.0N 40.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 53.2N 31.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 81.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 31.3N 81.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2016 31.5N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 31.2N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2016 31.2N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 31.3N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 31.5N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 32.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 32.2N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 32.7N 78.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 32.8N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 33.1N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 119.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 20.2N 119.2W STRONG 00UTC 15.09.2016 20.0N 120.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 19.9N 122.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 19.9N 124.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 19.7N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 19.7N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 19.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 19.7N 135.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 20.0N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 20.6N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 21.4N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 21.8N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 21.6N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 16.6N 24.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 16.6N 24.7W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2016 17.0N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 17.5N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2016 17.8N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 17.9N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 17.5N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 17.1N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 17.0N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.8N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 19.2N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 19.7N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 20.8N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 21.3N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.6N 106.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 14.6N 106.4W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2016 15.8N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 18.0N 110.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 19.2N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2016 21.3N 113.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2016 24.4N 114.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2016 27.0N 116.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.5N 136.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2016 11.0N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 11.5N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 11.7N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.6N 21.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2016 12.6N 21.2W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2016 14.3N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 15.0N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 16.2N 28.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 17.9N 29.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2016 19.7N 31.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141619