000 WTNT80 EGRR 140418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 81.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2016 29.8N 81.6W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 52.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2016 27.7N 52.8W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2016 30.9N 53.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 33.2N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 35.9N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2016 38.9N 48.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 43.0N 41.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 48.9N 32.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2016 POST-TROPICAL HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 118.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2016 20.2N 118.4W STRONG 12UTC 14.09.2016 20.8N 118.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 21.2N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 21.3N 120.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 21.5N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 21.8N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 21.8N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 21.7N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 16.1N 23.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 16.8N 24.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 17.8N 26.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 18.4N 28.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2016 18.5N 30.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.1N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 17.8N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 17.3N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 17.2N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.6N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 17.6N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 18.0N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.1N 16.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 13.6N 17.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2016 14.8N 20.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 16.2N 23.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 17.2N 25.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 18.5N 26.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 20.0N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.1N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 15.1N 104.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2016 17.3N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 19.6N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 21.4N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 23.3N 110.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2016 25.9N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.1N 139.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2016 11.1N 139.2W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2016 11.3N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2016 11.4N 139.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.1N 129.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2016 12.1N 129.5W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140418