000 WTNT80 EGRR 131618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 52.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2016 25.1N 52.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2016 27.2N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2016 29.9N 54.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 32.2N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 34.8N 53.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 37.8N 50.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 40.9N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 45.5N 36.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2016 50.3N 28.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2016 54.2N 18.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 POST-TROPICAL HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 118.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2016 19.8N 118.7W STRONG 00UTC 14.09.2016 20.6N 118.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2016 20.9N 118.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 21.0N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 20.8N 121.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 20.8N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 20.9N 126.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 20.9N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 21.0N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 21.1N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 21.7N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 22.5N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 23.4N 137.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.3N 24.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2016 17.3N 24.6W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2016 18.0N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2016 18.0N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2016 18.5N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.8N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 18.5N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 18.1N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 18.5N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 18.5N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.7N 103.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2016 13.7N 103.7W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2016 15.7N 105.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2016 16.5N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.3N 110.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 18.4N 112.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2016 19.4N 113.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.2N 19.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 12.2N 19.9W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2016 13.9N 21.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 15.3N 23.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 16.0N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2016 16.4N 27.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.9N 62.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2016 34.9N 62.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131618