000
WTNT80 EGRR 111618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2016

        TROPICAL STORM ORLENE     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 116.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.09.2016  14.9N 116.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 12.09.2016  16.4N 118.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2016  17.6N 119.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.09.2016  18.9N 119.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.09.2016  20.0N 119.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2016  20.9N 119.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2016  21.0N 119.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.09.2016  20.9N 119.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.09.2016  20.6N 120.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2016  20.3N 122.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2016  20.0N 124.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.09.2016  20.0N 126.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.09.2016  20.1N 128.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.4N  48.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.09.2016  21.3N  49.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.09.2016  21.5N  51.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2016  24.1N  52.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2016  25.5N  53.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2016  28.3N  54.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.09.2016  30.7N  54.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 15.09.2016  33.8N  54.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2016  37.2N  51.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.09.2016  41.3N  45.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2016  45.6N  37.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.09.2016  49.5N  26.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 104.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 17.09.2016  14.0N 104.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 17.09.2016  15.0N 106.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 111618