000 WTNT80 EGRR 061618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N 71.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2016 39.5N 71.7W MODERATE 00UTC 07.09.2016 38.9N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 39.4N 72.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 39.7N 72.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2016 40.3N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 166.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2016 32.7N 166.2W MODERATE 00UTC 07.09.2016 34.5N 166.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 36.6N 165.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 39.7N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 44.2N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE NEWTON ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 110.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2016 23.2N 110.4W STRONG 00UTC 07.09.2016 26.0N 111.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 29.4N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 32.8N 110.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.2N 135.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.5N 135.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 12.4N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 12.2N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 12.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 13.8N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 14.3N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 14.9N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2016 15.5N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2016 16.0N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2016 17.0N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2016 17.1N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.6N 146.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2016 11.6N 146.8W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2016 12.4N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 12.8N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 13.8N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 15.4N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2016 16.8N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2016 18.1N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2016 19.1N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2016 19.5N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.2N 33.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2016 16.3N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 18.1N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 20.0N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2016 21.7N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2016 23.4N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2016 24.8N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2016 26.3N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.4N 114.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2016 14.4N 114.4W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2016 15.1N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2016 16.0N 118.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2016 16.9N 120.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061618