000 WTNT80 EGRR 041618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 69.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2016 36.9N 69.8W MODERATE 00UTC 05.09.2016 37.2N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 38.0N 70.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 38.4N 71.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2016 38.5N 72.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 38.6N 71.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 38.9N 71.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 39.0N 70.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 39.0N 69.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 40.1N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 41.7N 62.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 24.0N 158.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2016 24.0N 158.6W MODERATE 00UTC 05.09.2016 25.8N 161.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 28.1N 163.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 30.3N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 32.3N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 34.3N 166.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 36.6N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 39.4N 164.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2016 42.8N 160.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.6N 105.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2016 14.6N 105.6W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2016 17.2N 105.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 18.3N 107.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 19.8N 108.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2016 21.7N 110.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 24.3N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 27.7N 113.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 31.3N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 34.4N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.5N 141.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2016 10.5N 141.0W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2016 11.5N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 12.3N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 13.0N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.9N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.7N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 13.0N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 13.6N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 14.1N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 14.6N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 15.3N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 15.7N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.8N 128.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2016 13.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 14.0N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 13.2N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.8N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 13.2N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 14.5N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 16.7N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 17.7N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 17.8N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 17.8N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.0N 53.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2016 17.4N 55.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.09.2016 18.8N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 20.2N 59.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 21.4N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2016 22.8N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.6N 50.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2016 11.6N 50.1W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041618