000 WTNT80 EGRR 040418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 72.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2016 36.3N 72.4W MODERATE 12UTC 04.09.2016 36.7N 70.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 37.2N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 38.1N 71.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 38.1N 72.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 38.0N 72.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 38.5N 72.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 38.9N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 38.9N 72.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 39.7N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 41.4N 67.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 44.2N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 156.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2016 22.3N 156.1W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2016 23.8N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 25.3N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 27.1N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 29.2N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 30.7N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 32.3N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 34.2N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 36.7N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.1N 106.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2016 17.1N 106.5W MODERATE 12UTC 05.09.2016 18.2N 108.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 19.2N 109.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2016 21.0N 111.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 23.8N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 26.4N 114.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 29.4N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.6N 127.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2016 13.6N 127.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 13.6N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 12.7N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.4N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.5N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 13.9N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 15.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 17.5N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 18.6N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 19.0N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.7N 141.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2016 10.7N 141.7W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2016 11.6N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 12.1N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.2N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.2N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 12.3N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 12.1N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 12.6N 143.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 13.4N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 14.4N 145.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.0N 135.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2016 13.0N 135.1W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2016 13.3N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 13.1N 134.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.9N 133.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.6N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 13.0N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2016 13.0N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2016 13.6N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2016 14.3N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2016 15.0N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 33.8N 61.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2016 34.5N 60.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040418