000 WTNT80 EGRR 020418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2016 HURRICANE GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 36.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 38.5N 36.6W MODERATE 12UTC 02.09.2016 38.9N 31.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 39.3N 28.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 40.0N 25.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 41.4N 23.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 84.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 29.2N 84.7W MODERATE 12UTC 02.09.2016 31.4N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 33.6N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 35.5N 75.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 36.5N 72.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 37.5N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 38.2N 70.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 38.9N 71.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 38.8N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 39.7N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 39.8N 69.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 39.7N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 39.8N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 145.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 18.6N 145.5W MODERATE 12UTC 02.09.2016 19.2N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 20.0N 150.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 20.5N 153.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 21.3N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 21.9N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 22.6N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 23.3N 163.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 158.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 16.4N 158.2W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2016 16.4N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 16.1N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 15.9N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 16.1N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 16.8N 170.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.0N 119.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2016 13.0N 119.6W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2016 13.0N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 13.0N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 13.1N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.4N 104.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2016 16.8N 105.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2016 17.8N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 18.6N 108.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 20.3N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 22.0N 112.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 24.0N 113.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 26.6N 114.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2016 29.5N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.2N 133.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2016 12.2N 133.5W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2016 12.3N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.4N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 12.0N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2016 12.4N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 117.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2016 14.0N 117.7W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2016 15.5N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 3.8N 75.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2016 3.8N 75.1W WEAK NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.2N 29.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2016 13.2N 29.5W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020418