000 WTNT80 EGRR 011617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2016 HURRICANE GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 42.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 37.3N 42.0W STRONG 00UTC 02.09.2016 38.6N 36.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 39.2N 32.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 39.7N 28.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 40.5N 25.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 42.1N 22.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 86.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 27.1N 86.0W MODERATE 00UTC 02.09.2016 28.8N 84.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 31.4N 82.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 33.7N 79.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 35.5N 75.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 36.7N 71.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 37.5N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 38.5N 69.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 38.0N 69.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 38.8N 68.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 39.3N 68.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 40.3N 67.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2016 40.8N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 143.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 17.9N 143.0W MODERATE 00UTC 02.09.2016 18.3N 145.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 18.8N 147.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 19.2N 150.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 19.5N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 19.8N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 20.6N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 21.1N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 157.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 16.7N 157.0W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2016 16.6N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 16.2N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 16.0N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 16.2N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 16.3N 168.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 16.8N 170.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 17.7N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.2N 74.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 33.2N 74.9W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2016 34.8N 70.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 35.8N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 16.0N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.09.2016 16.0N 104.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.09.2016 17.2N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 17.7N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 18.5N 108.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 20.0N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 21.2N 111.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 23.5N 113.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 25.7N 115.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2016 12.2N 135.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 12.4N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2016 11.8N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011617