000 WTNT80 EGRR 010418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2016 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.5N 71.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2016 36.5N 71.3W WEAK 12UTC 01.09.2016 38.1N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 40.3N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 42.0N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 44.8N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 46.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2016 35.6N 46.2W STRONG 12UTC 01.09.2016 37.9N 41.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 39.5N 36.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 40.5N 30.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 41.1N 26.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 42.0N 23.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 43.8N 20.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 87.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2016 25.2N 87.2W WEAK 12UTC 01.09.2016 27.2N 86.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 29.1N 84.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 31.7N 82.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 33.7N 78.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 35.7N 73.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 36.7N 69.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 37.3N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 38.1N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 39.1N 67.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2016 39.2N 68.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 40.2N 67.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 40.5N 65.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 140.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2016 17.8N 140.4W MODERATE 12UTC 01.09.2016 17.9N 142.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 18.3N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 18.8N 147.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 19.2N 150.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 19.5N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 20.1N 155.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 20.5N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 21.1N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 21.6N 163.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 21.9N 165.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 154.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.2N 154.5W MODERATE 12UTC 01.09.2016 17.5N 157.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 17.4N 160.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 17.0N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 16.7N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 16.8N 168.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2016 17.1N 170.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 17.9N 172.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 18.8N 174.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 32.6N 75.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 32.6N 75.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2016 34.4N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 35.5N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 37.3N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 39.5N 49.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.7N 103.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.09.2016 15.7N 103.9W WEAK 00UTC 04.09.2016 16.9N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2016 17.5N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2016 18.2N 108.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2016 18.8N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 19.7N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 20.5N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 21.7N 113.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 134.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2016 11.1N 134.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2016 12.3N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2016 12.6N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2016 13.3N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2016 13.2N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.1N 67.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.09.2016 17.5N 69.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2016 18.0N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010418