000 WTNT80 EGRR 281618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2016 HURRICANE GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 54.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2016 30.3N 54.6W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2016 30.5N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 30.7N 55.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 31.0N 54.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 31.3N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 31.9N 52.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2016 33.0N 51.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 34.5N 48.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 36.1N 44.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 36.9N 40.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 36.4N 36.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 35.2N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 34.2N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 122.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2016 18.0N 122.8W STRONG 00UTC 29.08.2016 18.1N 125.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.2N 128.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2016 18.6N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 19.0N 134.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 19.3N 136.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 19.4N 139.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 19.7N 141.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 20.2N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 20.8N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 21.7N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 22.8N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 24.4N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 140.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2016 16.4N 140.9W MODERATE 00UTC 29.08.2016 17.3N 142.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.0N 143.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 18.5N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 18.7N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 18.6N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 17.9N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 17.0N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 16.2N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 15.6N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 15.5N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 15.7N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 16.2N 160.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N 69.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.08.2016 31.3N 69.7W WEAK 00UTC 29.08.2016 32.0N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 32.7N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 33.5N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 34.0N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 34.7N 76.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2016 35.6N 75.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 36.7N 73.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2016 38.6N 69.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 41.9N 63.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 45.5N 58.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 47.8N 52.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 50.8N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 88.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2016 26.6N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 27.4N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 28.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 29.1N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2016 30.0N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.7N 99.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 14.4N 100.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 16.7N 102.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 18.9N 105.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 21.0N 108.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 112.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 12.2N 112.4W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2016 12.9N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 13.9N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2016 16.3N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281618