000 WTNT80 EGRR 280418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2016 TROPICAL STORM GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 54.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2016 29.2N 54.3W MODERATE 12UTC 28.08.2016 30.3N 54.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 30.8N 54.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 30.9N 55.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 31.1N 54.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.08.2016 31.3N 53.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 31.7N 52.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2016 32.3N 51.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 33.6N 50.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 35.5N 48.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 37.8N 45.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 39.7N 40.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 40.0N 34.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE LESTER ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 120.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2016 18.0N 120.1W STRONG 12UTC 28.08.2016 17.8N 122.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2016 18.0N 125.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.1N 127.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2016 18.5N 130.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 18.6N 133.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.08.2016 18.8N 135.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 18.7N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.9N 140.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 19.4N 143.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 20.0N 145.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 20.8N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 21.5N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 139.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2016 15.8N 139.8W MODERATE 12UTC 28.08.2016 16.4N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 17.2N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 18.1N 143.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 19.0N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 19.5N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 19.7N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 19.1N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.1N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 17.3N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 16.9N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 16.8N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 17.1N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.2N 67.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.08.2016 31.2N 67.9W WEAK 12UTC 28.08.2016 31.8N 69.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2016 32.5N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2016 33.2N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2016 33.9N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 34.8N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 35.0N 74.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.08.2016 35.8N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2016 37.2N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2016 39.5N 64.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 42.7N 58.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 46.0N 53.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 49.2N 49.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.3N 83.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2016 24.0N 83.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2016 24.5N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2016 24.8N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2016 25.2N 86.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 25.8N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 26.6N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2016 27.3N 86.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2016 28.0N 85.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2016 29.1N 83.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.09.2016 30.5N 82.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.2N 17.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2016 17.2N 17.2W WEAK 00UTC 31.08.2016 17.9N 20.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2016 18.1N 24.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2016 18.3N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2016 18.9N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2016 19.4N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2016 19.2N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 19.5N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.0N 96.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2016 15.0N 96.5W WEAK 12UTC 02.09.2016 15.0N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2016 15.0N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280418